Logistics Market Update April 2025

Logistics Market Update March 2025

Logistics Market Update April

April 2025 Logistics Market Update | Forceget

Monthly Highlights

1. Ocean Freight: Surge in Blank Sailings and Rate Increases

In April, transpacific routes experienced a significant rise in blank sailings, with some carriers canceling up to 50% of scheduled voyages. This reduction in capacity led to increased freight rates and extended transit times.
🔗 Source

2. Air Freight: Shifting Demand and Rising Costs

The air freight market saw a shift in demand, with increased activity on Northeast Asia–Europe routes due to disruptions in traditional corridors like China–US. Despite a decline in tonnage on the China–US lane, rates surged as shippers expedited shipments ahead of new tariffs.

🔗 Source

3. Geopolitical Developments: Tariff Impacts and Supply Chain Adjustments

The closure of the U.S. “de minimis” loophole on May 2 led to the imposition of tariffs on low-value imports, particularly affecting e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu. This policy change is prompting companies to reevaluate their supply chain strategies and consider alternative sourcing options.

🔗 Source

Key Takeaways

  • Ocean Freight: Significant increase in blank sailings on transpacific routes, leading to higher rates and longer transit times.
  • Air Freight: Rerouting of shipments to Northeast Asia–Europe lanes, with rising costs due to tariff-related urgency.
  • Geopolitical Factors: Implementation of new tariffs on low-value imports, causing disruptions in e-commerce logistics and prompting supply chain realignments.
  • Supply Chain Strategy: Businesses are investing in diversified sourcing and digital technologies to enhance resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Ocean Freight Market Update

Rate Trends and Capacity Adjustments

Freight Rates:

Ocean freight rates remained volatile in April amid heightened trade tensions and capacity realignments. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflected sharp YoY increases and growing lane-specific imbalances:

  • Asia–Europe: Rates remained flat to slightly rising as weak demand balanced out capacity oversupply. While carriers blanked some sailings post-Labor Day, overall rates held steady due to flat volume and excess vessel redeployment from Trans-Pacific services.
  • Asia–U.S. West Coast: Volumes dropped significantly due to ongoing U.S. tariff impacts. Over 25% of sailings were blanked in April, but spot rates surged mid-month as shippers rushed to import ahead of a 90-day tariff deadline.
  • Asia–South America: Rebound in late April as demand returned after previous blank sailings. Rates began climbing again as backlogs cleared and capacity filled up faster than anticipated.

Capacity Outlook:

  • Idle Fleet Levels: The idle fleet remained stable at ~1% globally, reflecting strong vessel utilization even as trade shifted routes due to geopolitical tensions. Carriers proactively adjusted schedules to avoid overcapacity and minimize rate crashes.
  • New Vessel Deployments: Major carriers including Maersk and CMA CGM continued to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea disruptions. This extended transit times but absorbed extra capacity, helping stabilize global schedule reliability.

Market-Specific Insights

Asia-Europe

  • Red Sea Detours Continue: Most carriers are still rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to transit times and increasing bunker fuel costs.
  • Overcapacity Risks: As excess vessels shift from Trans-Pacific lanes to Europe, blank sailings and sliding schedules are being used to prevent rate drops.

Asia-U.S. West Coast

  • Tariff Shock Response: After heavy front-loading in Q1, April saw a sharp drop in eastbound volume. Carriers responded with over 25% of sailings blanked.
  • Rate Volatility: Spot rates fluctuated mid-month as shippers rushed to beat tariff deadlines; uncertainty remains due to potential policy shifts.

South America

  • Rates Rebound: Following prior blank sailings, Asia–South America rates began rising again in late April, driven by strong demand and tight space.
  • Port Bottlenecks: Delays at Brazilian and Chilean ports persist, with 3–6 day average slowdowns reported due to yard congestion.

Environmental and Compliance Developments

EU Emission Trading System (ETS) Expands

  • Cost Pressure Builds: ETS surcharges continue expanding in scope as more carriers reach the 85% compliance threshold, adding cost per TEU on EU routes.

IMO 2024 Regulations & Fuel Costs

  • Sustainability = Surcharge: Emissions regulations combined with rerouting around the Red Sea are raising long-haul fuel expenses, prompting GRIs across multiple trade lanes.

Congestion and Reliability

Global Schedule Reliability

  • Global schedule reliability improved to 65% in April, yet congestion at origin ports in Asia and Red Sea instability still create widespread variability.

Vessel Delays

  • North Europe and U.S. ports are still facing 5–9 day delays, especially at major West Coast terminals, due to warehouse bottlenecks and labor availability issues.

Air Freight Updates

Peak Season Performance

Demand Surge

  • Mixed Post-Holiday Momentum: Global airfreight demand rebounded briefly in early April, especially from the Middle East and South Asia post-Eid. However, overall volume growth remained modest and inconsistent across trade lanes.
  • Tariff-Driven E-Commerce Spikes: A surge in last-minute orders from Asia to the U.S. was recorded ahead of U.S. tariff enforcement deadlines, temporarily increasing demand on key transpacific routes.

Capacity Constraints

  • Belly Capacity Returns: The return of seasonal passenger flights added significant bellyhold capacity on transatlantic and intra-Asia routes, helping stabilize space availability.
  • Lane Shifts & Aircraft Allocation: With ocean congestion and Red Sea detours still ongoing, some shippers rerouted to air—putting pressure on carriers to reallocate wide-body aircraft toward Asia–Europe lanes.

Rate Increases

Asia–U.S. West Coast: Spot rates were volatile, peaking mid-month due to pre-tariff import rushes, before easing slightly as volumes dropped post-deadline.

Europe Outbound: Rates remained steady, buoyed by automotive and aerospace cargo, but showed no significant MoM increase due to rising belly capacity from resumed flights.

Region-Specific Developments

Asia-Pacific

  • Red Sea & Sourcing Shifts: Demand for Asia–EU and intra-Asia lanes increased as some shippers diverted ocean cargo to air. Shanghai and Hong Kong saw consistent lift, though spot rates remained flat.
  • China–U.S. Trends: Rates rose briefly as e-commerce sellers rushed shipments ahead of de minimis expiration, especially for fast fashion and consumer electronics.

Europe

  • Industrial Cargo Volume Holds: Aerospace and automotive parts continued to dominate lift out of Germany, France, and Eastern Europe.
  • Airport Congestion Eases Slightly: Frankfurt and Amsterdam saw minor improvements in clearance times compared to March, though delays persisted on certain days.

Disruptions and Delays

Weather Events

  • Mild April Conditions: No major weather-related disruptions reported across North America or Europe in April.

Temperature-Sensitive Shipments

  • Reefer Airfreight Demand Holds: Medical and perishable cargo demand remained stable, with isolated delays in select African and Southeast Asian airports due to handling limitations.

Geopolitical Tensions

  • Red Sea Crisis Keeps Pressure on Air: Rerouting of ocean vessels around Africa continues to shift sensitive or urgent cargo to air—especially for high-value electronics and apparel.
  • Tariff Uncertainty Spurs Short-Term Volume Swings: The 90-day pause on U.S. tariff expansions created temporary spikes in bookings as shippers tried to move goods before potential deadlines.

Technological Advancements

C

  • AI & Tracking Systems
  • Adoption Expands: Airlines continued rolling out AI-based cargo visibility tools, improving real-time tracking and load forecasting.
  • Predictive Allocations: More carriers are applying predictive models to pre-plan cargo mix and avoid overbooking or underutilization, especially on volatile Asia–U.S. routes.

Drones for Last-Mile Deliveries

  • Pilot Expansions: Drone delivery trials were extended in remote areas of Canada, the UAE, and parts of rural Europe, focusing on e-commerce parcels and healthcare deliveries.
  • Regulatory Fast-Tracking: Some authorities (e.g. Singapore, UAE) accelerated permits for limited commercial drone routes, with full-scale rollouts expected in late 2025.

Freight Market and Amazon News

Tariffs and Trade Policy Updates

U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports Continue to Reshape Trade

  • U.S. tariffs remain in effect with rates reaching as high as 125–145% on many Chinese goods, creating significant disruption across ocean and air freight.
  • Many importers are accelerating efforts to shift sourcing to Vietnam, Mexico, and India as long-term diversification strategies.
    📎 Source: Flexport

De Minimis Elimination Impacts E-Commerce

  • Effective May 2, the U.S. has eliminated the de minimis duty exemption for low-value shipments, especially targeting fast fashion and electronics.
  • This move hits platforms like Temu and Shein, forcing them to raise prices and reevaluate U.S. fulfillment strategies.
    📎 Source: Bertling

Amazon Marketplace Updates

FBA Restock Limits Quietly Return

  • Amazon reinstated FBA restock limits in April without formal announcement, capping SKUs to ~90 days of inventory based on sell-through.
  • Sellers now face tighter controls ahead of summer peak season, prompting many to shift more inventory to 3PLs.
    📎 Source: Carbon6

Amazon Loosens Fair Pricing Policy Amid Tariffs

  • In response to increased landed costs due to tariffs, Amazon has relaxed enforcement of its Fair Pricing Policy.
  • Sellers raising prices 10–20% due to tariffs have retained Buy Box eligibility, enabling margin protection.
    📎 Source: Seller Labs

Shifts in Freight Demand and Pricing

Blank Sailings and Spot Rate Fluctuations

  • Over 25% of Trans-Pacific sailings were blanked in April as carriers responded to reduced China–US volumes.
  • Spot rates surged mid-month as importers front-loaded cargo ahead of new tariffs, then dipped as demand faded.
    📎 Source: Flexport

Air Cargo Sees Uneven Demand

  • A short-lived post-Eid and tariff-driven bump on Asia–U.S. lanes was followed by soft volumes in late April.
  • Rates remained under pressure due to returning belly capacity and cautious consumer spending.
    📎 Source: Bertling

Forceget Supply Chain Provider is a leading NVOCC licensed global logistics company that specializes in parcel, air and ocean shipping. With offices in key locations such as the USA, China, Hong Kong, Turkey, Israel and Colombia, we are well-positioned to assist you with all your logistics and brokerage needs, no matter where you are located. We take care of all the complexities of international shipping, allowing you to focus on what you do best – competing in your local market. Additionally, we pride ourselves on being the number one Amazon FBA focused freight forwarder, ensuring that your products are delivered to Amazon warehouses in a timely and cost-effective manner. With Forceget, you can have peace of mind knowing that your global logistics needs are in expert hands.